Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
Do not exit in panic or buy falling stocks without reassessing fundamentals; instead, build a watchlist and invest gradually with a disciplined, long-term approach.
For the foreseeable future, the most likely outcome remains continuation of the status quo. Taiwan will remain self-governing without formally declaring independence, while China continues to apply sustained pressure short of war, predict Krishnan Srinivasan and Manoj Mohanka.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) cap on banks' forex positions provided only a temporary boost to the rupee, with the currency quickly reversing gains and breaching the 95-per-dollar mark due to persistent underlying pressures.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
Infosys reported a 20.8 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to 8,501 crore for the January-March quarter of FY26, with revenue from operations rising 13.4 per cent to 46,402 crore. The IT major has guided for a 1.5 to 3.5 per cent revenue growth for FY27, driven by momentum in financial services, utilities, and emerging AI services, despite a volatile macroeconomic environment and geopolitical risks.
State Bank of India Chairman C S Setty has expressed support for a 'pause' in policy rates by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee, believing it will help stabilise conditions and support economic growth. He also urged investors to look beyond short-term equity market movements and focus on India's structural transformation, driven by reforms and digital infrastructure.
'So far our production is not affected. But every day the situation prolongs, it does bring risks in terms of shipments getting delayed.'
Escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia are prompting investors with exposure to Dubai's real estate market to reassess their portfolios. And, in this rejig, India is emerging as a stable destination for capital investment and long-term growth.
India's electric passenger vehicle market saw an 87.4 per cent year-on-year increase in FY26, reaching 233,246 units, primarily driven by the mid-size SUV segment (20-30 lakh price bracket), while the entry-level segment (sub-10 lakh) experienced a decline.
The United States has extended a waiver from sanctions to allow countries to buy petroleum products from Russia by a month, days after it ruled out renewal of the special measure.
Bajaj Auto is set to launch new Pulsar motorcycles in the 125cc and 150-250cc segments in Q2 FY27, aiming to capitalise on the upcoming festival season surge. This move follows strong growth in the 150cc-plus segment, where refreshed Pulsar models already account for over 50 per cent of Bajaj's sales.
'When markets go into a budget with excessive optimism, the risk of disappointment is higher.'
The Indian metal market is a promising sector to invest in as it provides a good balance between the prospects of growth and stability in dynamic economic conditions and a changing geopolitical environment. Metals such as gold, silver, copper, etc, have gained renewed significance in 2025, amidst growing inflation and India's push towards infrastructural growth and green energy initiatives.
The Indian metal market is a promising sector to invest in as it provides a good balance between the prospects of growth and stability in dynamic economic conditions and a changing geopolitical environment. Metals such as gold, silver, copper, etc, have gained renewed significance in 2025, amidst growing inflation and India's push towards infrastructural growth and green energy initiatives.
Wipro reported Q4FY26 IT services revenue of $2.6 billion, a modest 0.2 per cent Q-o-Q constant currency growth, with adjusted operating profit margin beating estimates at 17.2 per cent. The company announced a significant share buyback of ~15,000 crore, but faces near-term growth challenges, particularly in the BFSI segment, and has issued a soft Q1FY27 revenue guidance.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil is heading to India, marking the resumption of oil imports from Iran after seven years.
'Travellers are considering safer and more stable destinations.'
Trump's remarks marks one of the most direct rebukes yet from Washington to its allies over their refusal to support US-led military operations in Iran and over the energy crisis triggered by disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
There are enough people at the top decision-making level in Tehran who are still willing to negotiate, provided Trump can create the right setting for the negotiation to acquire a dynamic of its own, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan, quarterly earnings and macro data will be the key drivers of stock markets in the holiday-shortened week, say analysts.
The question is whether the clocks allow enough time for two deeply mistrustful sides to get there, and whether the surface calm holds long enough for the paddling to produce something before the ceasefire ends on April 22, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
'New investors should enter gradually and stay cautious.' 'Silver is a structural multi-year story, but timing matters in a high-volatility metal.'
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
A neutral monetary policy stance, heavy government borrowing, and issuers adjusting to a higher-for-longer yield environment have set the stage for a largely stable corporate bond market in 2026.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
China's latest defence budget surges to $275 billion, fueling its ambitious military modernisation program and intensifying geopolitical dynamics in the region.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Domestic mutual funds have infused the highest ever -- Rs 4.84 trillion -- this year amid strong inflows via SIPs.
In the Indian stock market, investors are interested in the actions of both domestic and foreign institutional investors (FIIs and DIIs). These groups have wealth as well as expertise in research, which makes them powerful participants in the Indian stock market. Their buy and sell positions have a large effect on stock prices and market sentiment due to the large volume.
Macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of Q1 earnings and global trends are the major factors that would influence trading sentiments in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors would also be a crucial factor in dictating movement in the market. Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
A trade deal makes sense only if it is fair and reciprocal. If the cost is strategic dependence or loss of policy space, waiting is the wiser option, asserts Ajay Srivastava.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
The reduction in the goods and services tax (GST) rates has increased the momentum in India's economic activity both on the supply and demand sides, while robust agricultural activity - reflected in the strong onset of rabi sowing and adequate reservoir levels - has reinforced the outlook for food supply and rural incomes, the finance ministry said on Thursday.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday expressed hope that India will conclude the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US by the fall or November this year. He said that "a little bit" of geopolitical issues overtook the trade matters in the negotiations for the pact between the two countries.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the world is facing "profound imbalances" in trade and energy security, and is undergoing a structural transformation, with India standing out as a 'stabilising force' that can withstand external shocks.
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
From the Sensex constituents, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Power Grid, Trent, NTPC, Maruti, HCL Tech and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
